Voters have found a new shared opponent, and Poilievre’s lead has “vanished,” according to one pollster.
Donald Trump’s flashy and aggressive start to his administration is now part of history. One thing is clear: the U.S. president has become the central focus of Canadian politics, shaking up everything in play.
A recent Ekos poll, released on January 29, highlights a dramatic shift. Just a month ago, following Chrystia Freeland’s high-profile departure from the Liberal cabinet, the Conservatives had surged to a seemingly unbeatable 25-point lead. But in just weeks, that advantage has all but disappeared, reshaping what once looked like an inevitable Conservative majority.
Much of this change can be attributed to Trump and his combative approach. As Canada heads toward a federal election, his rhetoric and policies are stirring frustration and concern among Canadians.
From threats of punitive tariffs to the unsettling notion of annexation—right after reclaiming the Panama Canal and acquiring Greenland, of course—Trump’s stance toward Canada has been anything but friendly.
He claims the U.S. has no need for Canada, overlooking key resources like the 4.3 million barrels of oil per day that sustain American refineries. He also seems to forget the importance of Ontario’s hydroelectric power and Quebec’s aluminum to the U.S. economy.
Trump’s approach may be fueling resentment in Canada—and reshaping its political landscape in the process.
Trump’s Confrontational Tactics Are Reshaping Canadian Politics
Donald Trump’s defiant and often misleading rhetoric toward Canada was once again on full display during his remote address at Davos.
In typical fashion, he claimed that the U.S. trade deficit with Canada ranged between $200 billion and $250 billion—a figure completely detached from reality. According to a recent TD Bank analysis, the actual deficit is just $45 billion—less than a quarter of what Trump asserts.
Yet, despite his exaggerations, one thing is undeniable: Trump, a product of populist politics, aggressive marketing, habitual falsehoods, and questionable hair choices, has had a profound impact north of the 49th parallel.
The Cost of Appeasing Trump
At the federal level, Ottawa has spent $1 billion to strengthen border security in an attempt to placate Trump—despite Mexico being his real concern, not Canada.
The government has also prepared a three-phase retaliation plan in case Trump follows through on his threats to impose tariffs. His track record is clear: he previously slapped tariffs on Colombia, forcing the country to accept U.S. deportation flights or face a 25% penalty.
Doug Ford’s Bold Move
Trump’s belligerence has sent shockwaves through Canadian politics, reaching even the provincial level. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has called a snap election, despite already holding a majority government and not being due for re-election for over a year.
His reason? To fight Trump.
Ford has strategically positioned himself as “Captain Canada,” vowing to confront Trump’s tariff threats head-on—even suggesting he’d cut off American access to Canadian electricity if provoked.
This is a calculated move. Unlike former Liberal Premier David Peterson, who prematurely called an election in 1990 (only to lose to Bob Rae’s NDP), Ford understands that Canada’s political landscape is shifting at lightning speed.
The usual political battlegrounds—Trudeau, taxes, and carbon pricing—are fading into the background. A new common enemy has emerged: a former U.S. ally turned economic aggressor.
Trump’s Influence at Every Level
Trump’s policies have even mobilized Canadian municipalities. Mayors of border cities—those most vulnerable to tariffs—have formed the Border Mayors Alliance, working to craft a unified response ahead of a possible trade war.
At the federal level, the Liberal government has taken a cautious yet firm stance. With a leadership race underway and a minority government in power, they are treading carefully. Their strategy has been to lobby U.S. state governors and use diplomatic back channels to make one thing clear: Trump’s tariffs won’t just hurt Canada—they could cripple the American economy, too.
But will this strategy succeed? With Trump threatening to impose tariffs as soon as February 1, time is running out.
The Conservative Dilemma
The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) finds itself in a precarious position. While Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have aggressively pushed back against Trump, the federal Conservatives seem caught off guard.
Pierre Poilievre, typically a dominant force in political discourse, appears uncertain. Instead of addressing the Trump situation head-on, he has been busy writing letters to Mark Carney, attempting to dictate the Liberal cabinet lineup.
Poilievre’s predicament is clear: his entire election strategy was built around running against Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax. With Trudeau stepping down and his potential successors distancing themselves from both the carbon tax and capital gains hikes, Poilievre’s carefully laid plans are unraveling.
Now, he faces a difficult choice:
- Support Doug Ford’s aggressive, nationalist stance against Trump, risking backlash from Alberta conservatives.
- Align with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who refuses to back trade retaliation measures, making him look weak in a national crisis.
With Trump rapidly becoming public enemy number one in Canada, Poilievre’s own Trump-like policies and populist approach may push Canadians to look elsewhere—perhaps to someone like Mark Carney, the likely next Liberal leader and a strong contender for prime minister.
That would leave voters with a defining choice: slogans or substance? Trash talk or real leadership?
One thing is clear—Trump has changed everything.
Poilievre’s Trump Mimicry
Pierre Poilievre’s latest Trump-style policy proposal? A pledge to fire thousands of civil servants if he becomes prime minister, claiming that bloated bureaucracy is the result of Liberal overspending.
Sound familiar? Donald Trump has made similar promises, vowing to purge as many as 50,000 federal employees in the U.S.—including prosecutors investigating him. As Trump put it:
“They’re destroying this country. They’re crooked people, they’re dishonest people. They’re going to be held accountable.”
War on the Media
Poilievre’s hostile view of the press also echoes Trump’s rhetoric.
Trump has repeatedly called the media “enemies of the people”, accused journalists of spreading “fake news”, and even threatened to revoke broadcast licenses of networks that challenge him.
Similarly, Poilievre believes the press is biased against Conservatives and too cozy with progressives. Instead of engaging with mainstream media, he relies on social media soundbites and folksy, apple-eating videos—a tactic admired by his political mentor, Stephen Harper, who also distrusted the press.
Most telling of all? Poilievre’s plan to defund the CBC, a move that would eliminate nearly 9,500 jobs, including hundreds of journalists.
Fossil Fuels Over Climate Action
Where Trump and Poilievre align most closely is in their enthusiastic support for fossil fuels and disregard for climate action.
Trump’s energy policy was simple: “Drill, baby, drill.” One of his first acts as president was withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accords, calling it part of his “America First” strategy.
Poilievre’s “Canada First” approach mirrors Trump’s almost exactly. Speaking in Calgary, he declared:
“We are going to clear the way for pipelines. I am going to support pipelines south, north, east, and west.”
This at a time when global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for 11 consecutive months in 2024.
The “Everything Is Broken” Playbook
Trump’s latest campaign message revolved around a doom-and-gloom narrative:
- Everything is broken.
- Crime is rampant.
- Democratic leadership is the worst in history.
- Joe Biden is a “hopeless incompetent.”
Poilievre echoes that message almost word-for-word:
- “Canada is broken.”
- Politics is in chaos.
- Trudeau is “wacko.”
- His ministers are “crazy, disastrous, incompetent, and discredited.”
Like Trump, Poilievre brands himself as a populist outsider, railing against elites and “woke” politics, using language more suited to locker rooms than Parliament.
Pandemic Politics
Trump recently announced that U.S. military personnel dismissed for refusing the COVID-19 vaccine could return to service with eight years of back pay.
Poilievre took a similar stance, rejecting vaccine mandates—not as a public health issue, but as a government overreach infringing on personal freedom.
Trump’s Shadow Looms Large
Try as he might, Poilievre can’t escape Trump’s influence. From gutting civil service jobs to attacking the press, from embracing fossil fuels to sowing distrust in government, his agenda is steeped in Trumpian populism.
The question for Canadians: Do they want a leader who mirrors Trump’s playbook?
The Musk Factor
There’s one endorsement Pierre Poilievre may have a hard time explaining away—the backing of Elon Musk.
It’s not just Musk’s high-profile support that could raise eyebrows, but the baggage that comes with it.
At a time when Donald Trump is creating an existential crisis for Canadians, the endorsement of one of his closest allies may be more of a liability than an advantage.
But it’s Musk’s increasingly erratic behavior that could be especially damaging for Poilievre.
Musk’s Controversial Actions
Most recently, at a public event for Trump’s inauguration, Musk made a gesture that many interpreted as a Nazi salute. His defenders dismissed it as an awkward movement, but Musk compounded the controversy by later posting Nazi-related puns to mock his critics.
The reaction was swift. The Anti-Defamation League and several Jewish organizations condemned his actions, stating:
“The Holocaust is not a joke.”
Then came another stunning move—Musk made a virtual appearance at a gathering of Germany’s far-right party, AfD, just weeks before the country’s elections.
Some AfD members openly argue that Germany should not have a Holocaust memorial, and Musk’s implicit support for the party sent shockwaves through political circles.
This raises uncomfortable questions for Poilievre, especially given that three Conservative MPs previously had lunch with AfD member Christine Anderson during her visit to Canada—a visit that was organized by supporters of the Freedom Convoy protests.
Surprising Election Polls
With Trump’s retribution agenda in full swing and Poilievre’s policy similarities to Trump becoming more evident, a once-certain Conservative landslide in the next election may no longer be guaranteed.
The CPC remains the frontrunner, but recent polling suggests slippage in their lead.
The latest Mainstreet Research survey for Ontario (conducted on Jan. 26) found:
- Doug Ford’s Conservatives: 31%
- Liberals: 24%
- NDP: 20%
But an unexpected finding in the same poll raised eyebrows. When asked:
“If the federal election were held today, how would you vote?”
Ontario’s response was surprising:
- Liberals (under a new leader): 36%
- Conservatives (under Poilievre): 34%
- NDP (Jagmeet Singh): 11%
A day later, on Jan. 27, the Angus Reid Institute released a poll showing renewed interest in the federal Liberals. While the CPC still leads, the data was striking:
- Under Mark Carney, the Liberals would secure 29% of the vote.
- Before Trudeau resigned, Liberal support had plummeted to just 16%.
A Race No Longer Set in Stone?
Just weeks ago, Poilievre seemed poised for an easy victory. But now, with Trump’s growing unpopularity, Musk’s problematic endorsements, and a Liberal resurgence under a new leader, the path to power may not be as smooth as the CPC once expected.
